Harmonising Energy Models and Data to Aid Decisions on the Net Zero Transition
(ReFLEX Orkney Workshop, Heriot-Watt (Virtual), Aug 2022)
Synopsis
This workshop was developed by the Urban Energy Research Group (UERG) at Heriot-Watt University. During this virtual workshop, participants reviewed a set of questions (outcomes from an in-person workshop at Heriot-Watt University in September 2019) relating to challenges associated with the Orkney energy system. Within groups, the participants shortlisted 3-5 questions to study further during the group activity. In order to simulate a series of quick-fire policy development exercises, the a shortlisted questions were linked to lists of evidence, from which questions might be addressed.
More details to follow. [Apr 2023]
Mapping activities
Group 1
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Vehicle battery size (kWh) nearby
Scale of onsite gen (kW) & mode (pv/wind)
embodied carbon and rare earth element use
cost and commercialisation of sodium-ion batteries
Home energy consumption data (Watt Minute?)
Existing community anchor organisations or community decision making organisations
Future energy cost forecasts
Renewable saturation of external markets (is this likely to saturate in the future?)
Predicted changes in energy consumption (due to cost of living crisis)
Battery requirements at different levels of renewable grid saturation
battery economics; incl. arbitration potential
Question
Should we encourage investments in individual storage units (like Tesla Powerwall) or some form of community storage? How would these unit…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 1
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Present energy use (by fuel)
DNO acceptance of interventions and distributed assets
Predicted energy generation
How changing export ability affects the abatement potential of the infrastructure (utilisation)
Future forecast grid carbon intenstity
Predicted Orkney energy consumption in the future
Carbon cost of existing systems
Abatement potentials of renewable generation at different levels of grid saturation
Carbon costs of infrastructure (batteries; EVs; Generation)
Question
How does the IES (Integrated Energy System) action impact decarbonisation of the system?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 1
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
State of charge of vehicle
last sale price of the property
House proximity to public transport
Building types of that particular location
probability of access to off-street parking or car court
Households ability to use shared vehicles (does every household need a private vehicle?)
Question
How does income; home ownership and access to off-street parking impact on ownership/use of electric vehicles?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
infrared heating manufacturer data
Contractor (plumber; electricians; etc.) readiness
Cost Data from SSEN to demonstrate the costs of network upgrades
Existing oil and solid fuel consumption
survey on end-users' willingness to change
heatpump manufacturer data
Estimate of electricity consumption following switch
type of electrical heating system to be installed and its energy consumption by time
Housing stock build type (insulation levels)
Time of heating and DHW consumption
Heat Pump Characteristics
heat loss data by property
Understanding of end users behaviours
Future climatic factors? (25 year forecast with impact of climate change/rising temperatures)
Question
Can the Orkney grid accommodate a move from oil and solid fuel (over 40% of domestic properties and significant commercial etc) to electric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Level of flexibility (ability to shift demand to when most needed to align with renewable generation)
heat electrification forecast
Should facilitate the connection of additional renewable generation
transport electrification forecast
Question
How does the IES (Integrated Energy System) action impact decarbonisation of the system?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Data relating to avoided Curtailment costs
Curtailment quantities and time (kWh; kW; time)
Model of control of assets
higher resolution and geographically spread weather data
heating and DHW consumption data
Financial benefits from the %reduction
Energy generation and demand profiles
SSEN network data - genuine curtailment vs outages/comms failures
Data relating to load reduction provided by ReFlex
Forecast of future generation that could be added
Question
What will be the associated % reduction in curtailment of local generation due to ReFLEX?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Curtailment historic data
Location of generation; storage and demand assets
Location of available land for generation to be installed
Forecast of continued EV uptake
Forecast of transition to electrical heating
minimum return on investiment that would be viable for new generation
Question
In the event that a 132kV interconnector is not installed; what level of local flexible demand would be required to enable a further 100MW …
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Scottish Govt Energy Efficiency Timeline
new insulation technologies coming to market
immediate and long-term funding for intervention measures
material thermal characteristics
power and heat measuring and modelling
Response of heat pumps due to correct/incorrect insultaiotn and hydronic design
viability of achieve a blanket coverage of all orkney properties
Orkney's housing stock (building type; insulation levels)
Question
What would the energy demand of Orkney's households look like for buildings if they all met various minimum energy efficiency ratings?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 3
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
The electrification of other sectors which will also contribute to increased electricity demand
Suitability of the building stock for electric heating (i.e. heatpumps)
Current energy demand for oil and solid fuel
Current energy demand for heat pumps and other electric heating
Local distribution grid network capacity (headroom and constraints)
What level of flexibility can be introduced into the energy system (e.g. through batteries; demand; response)
Question
Can the Orkney grid accommodate a move from oil and solid fuel (over 40% of domestic properties and significant commercial etc) to electric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 3
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
TraDER - something similar (P2P - curtailment avoidance)
Cellular energy systems (i.e. hierarchical energy management in balance groups per island and then between the islands)
Smart homes; IoT; interconnectivity
Active network management to interact with flexible demand
Question
What Local Flexibility Market could solve Orkney’s specific issues? What Energy System control algorithm?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 3
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Expenditure on existing energy sources that are imported
Operational characteristics of traditional energy sources
Existing commercial arrangements for energy supply
Modelled uptake of decarbonised technologies
Operational characteristics of new energy sources
Cost of new energy sources
Question
What is impact of this LES (Local Energy System) on traditional energy sources? How does this impact assumptions on future supply and pric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 4
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Current grid capacity as a function of time
Connectivity to the island
Temporal distribution of demand
Future projections of energy sources
Future projections of energy demand
Spatial distribution of demand
Question
Can the Orkney grid accommodate a move from oil and solid fuel (over 40% of domestic properties and significant commercial etc) to electric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 4
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Physical space for forms of storage
Expected size of individual systems
Business model for accessing benefits of that solution
Question
Should we encourage investments in individual storage units (like Tesla Powerwall) or some form of community storage? How would these unit…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 4
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?
Capacity of EV (regarding safety for connecting to network at given time)
Industrial patterns of usage (i.e. non-residential EVs)
Flexibility potential of EVs
Nature of connection (e.g. communal vs private) and resulting characteristics
Future projections of battery size/performance
Community-specific projection of uptake (e.g. urban vs rural etc)
Telematic/usage data of current EVs
Question
When will an electric vehicle next be connected to the system; what energy will it need and how long is there to provide this?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Workshop summary points
New insights on decision-making
Discussion points on models
Discussion points on data
Workshop feeback
Feedback on workshop and platform