Harmonising Energy Models and Data to Aid Decisions on the Net Zero Transition (ReFLEX Orkney Workshop, Heriot-Watt (Virtual), Aug 2022)

        
Synopsis

This workshop was developed by the Urban Energy Research Group (UERG) at Heriot-Watt University. During this virtual workshop, participants reviewed a set of questions (outcomes from an in-person workshop at Heriot-Watt University in September 2019) relating to challenges associated with the Orkney energy system. Within groups, the participants shortlisted 3-5 questions to study further during the group activity. In order to simulate a series of quick-fire policy development exercises, the a shortlisted questions were linked to lists of evidence, from which questions might be addressed.

More details to follow. [Apr 2023]

Mapping activities Group 1
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

V2G availability

Vehicle battery size (kWh) nearby

Scale of onsite gen (kW) & mode (pv/wind)

embodied carbon and rare earth element use

Consumer Choice Making

cost and commercialisation of sodium-ion batteries

Home energy consumption data (Watt Minute?)

Existing community anchor organisations or community decision making organisations

Future energy cost forecasts

Renewable saturation of external markets (is this likely to saturate in the future?)

Predicted changes in energy consumption (due to cost of living crisis)

Battery requirements at different levels of renewable grid saturation

battery economics; incl. arbitration potential

Question
Should we encourage investments in individual storage units (like Tesla Powerwall) or some form of community storage? How would these unit…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 1
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

Present carbon intensity

Present energy use (by fuel)

smart meters data

DNO acceptance of interventions and distributed assets

Current fossil fuel use

Predicted energy generation

How changing export ability affects the abatement potential of the infrastructure (utilisation)

Future forecast grid carbon intenstity

Demand responsiveness

Predicted Orkney energy consumption in the future

Carbon cost of existing systems

Abatement potentials of renewable generation at different levels of grid saturation

Carbon costs of infrastructure (batteries; EVs; Generation)

Question
How does the IES (Integrated Energy System) action impact decarbonisation of the system?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 1
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

State of charge of vehicle

'Next journey' distance

council tax band

property ownership

Energy Efficiency Rating

last sale price of the property

House proximity to public transport

Housing Density

Building types of that particular location

probability of access to off-street parking or car court

income stability

Households ability to use shared vehicles (does every household need a private vehicle?)

Question
How does income; home ownership and access to off-street parking impact on ownership/use of electric vehicles?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

infrared heating manufacturer data

Contractor (plumber; electricians; etc.) readiness

Cost Data from SSEN to demonstrate the costs of network upgrades

Cost of assets

Existing oil and solid fuel consumption

survey on end-users' willingness to change

Fuel imports

heatpump manufacturer data

Local energy resources

Estimate of electricity consumption following switch

New control schemes

type of electrical heating system to be installed and its energy consumption by time

Housing stock build type (insulation levels)

Time of heating and DHW consumption

Heat Pump Characteristics

heat loss data by property

Understanding of end users behaviours

Future climatic factors? (25 year forecast with impact of climate change/rising temperatures)

SSEN Network Model

Question
Can the Orkney grid accommodate a move from oil and solid fuel (over 40% of domestic properties and significant commercial etc) to electric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

control of the IES

Level of flexibility (ability to shift demand to when most needed to align with renewable generation)

assets in the IES

heat electrification forecast

Should facilitate the connection of additional renewable generation

transport electrification forecast

Question
How does the IES (Integrated Energy System) action impact decarbonisation of the system?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

current driving stats

Data relating to avoided Curtailment costs

Curtailment quantities and time (kWh; kW; time)

Model of control of assets

higher resolution and geographically spread weather data

EV chargering habits

heating and DHW consumption data

Financial benefits from the %reduction

Energy generation and demand profiles

SSEN network data - genuine curtailment vs outages/comms failures

Data relating to load reduction provided by ReFlex

Forecast of future generation that could be added

Assets characteristics

Question
What will be the associated % reduction in curtailment of local generation due to ReFLEX?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

Curtailment historic data

Grid Model

Location of generation; storage and demand assets

Location of available land for generation to be installed

Forecast of continued EV uptake

Forecast of transition to electrical heating

ANM curtailment Model

Demand profiles

minimum return on investiment that would be viable for new generation

Storage capacity

Question
In the event that a 132kV interconnector is not installed; what level of local flexible demand would be required to enable a further 100MW …
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 2
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

Scottish Govt Energy Efficiency Timeline

new insulation technologies coming to market

immediate and long-term funding for intervention measures

Updated heat loss model

material thermal characteristics

end-users behaviours

power and heat measuring and modelling

Response of heat pumps due to correct/incorrect insultaiotn and hydronic design

viability of achieve a blanket coverage of all orkney properties

Orkney's housing stock (building type; insulation levels)

Question
What would the energy demand of Orkney's households look like for buildings if they all met various minimum energy efficiency ratings?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 3
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

The electrification of other sectors which will also contribute to increased electricity demand

Suitability of the building stock for electric heating (i.e. heatpumps)

Current energy demand for oil and solid fuel

Current energy demand for heat pumps and other electric heating

Local distribution grid network capacity (headroom and constraints)

What level of flexibility can be introduced into the energy system (e.g. through batteries; demand; response)

Question
Can the Orkney grid accommodate a move from oil and solid fuel (over 40% of domestic properties and significant commercial etc) to electric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 3
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

TraDER - something similar (P2P - curtailment avoidance)

Cellular energy systems (i.e. hierarchical energy management in balance groups per island and then between the islands)

Smart homes; IoT; interconnectivity

Active network management to interact with flexible demand

Question
What Local Flexibility Market could solve Orkney’s specific issues? What Energy System control algorithm?
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 3
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

Expenditure on existing energy sources that are imported

Operational characteristics of traditional energy sources

Existing commercial arrangements for energy supply

Modelled uptake of decarbonised technologies

Operational characteristics of new energy sources

Cost of new energy sources

Question
What is impact of this LES (Local Energy System) on traditional energy sources? How does this impact assumptions on future supply and pric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 4
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

Current grid capacity as a function of time

Connectivity to the island

Temporal distribution of demand

Future projections of energy sources

Future projections of energy demand

Spatial distribution of demand

Question
Can the Orkney grid accommodate a move from oil and solid fuel (over 40% of domestic properties and significant commercial etc) to electric…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 4
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

Physical space for forms of storage

Expected size of individual systems

Business model for accessing benefits of that solution

Question
Should we encourage investments in individual storage units (like Tesla Powerwall) or some form of community storage? How would these unit…
DECISION
Compiled evidence
Group 4
Which models & data sources will deliver this information?
What information is necessary to address this question?

Capacity of EV (regarding safety for connecting to network at given time)

Industrial patterns of usage (i.e. non-residential EVs)

Flexibility potential of EVs

Nature of connection (e.g. communal vs private) and resulting characteristics

Future projections of battery size/performance

Community-specific projection of uptake (e.g. urban vs rural etc)

Telematic/usage data of current EVs

Question
When will an electric vehicle next be connected to the system; what energy will it need and how long is there to provide this?
DECISION
Compiled evidence

Workshop summary points
New insights on decision-making
Discussion points on models
Discussion points on data

Workshop feeback
Feedback on workshop and platform